Some time ago, I was working with web stats (trying to find out what the most common version of IE was, oddly enough), and I noticed that in the OS stats, windows XP was slowly creeping down. At the time I assumed that it was because of the release of Vista, and the up coming release of windows 7. Yesterday I was looking through my browser history for something else entirely and I saw this, clicked on it in curiosity and noticed that all versions of windows where slowly creeping down.
Now interested, I downloaded all the stats since 2003 and started doing some statistical analysis on them. My goal was simple: forecast the year of the Linux desktop. The idea of “the year of the Linux desktop” is not new, and for those of you who don’t know this is the time in which the Linux community consider themselves to have “won”, particularly over Microsoft. Many thought it would be the year 2000 and later on, it was the year of Vistas release, but none of these dates turned out to be right. With statistics at my side I started plotting the market share of Linux in 5 years time. Surely by then we’d have won! In 2015 my numbers said 6% of computers on the internet would be Linux. That didn’t sound like a winners number, so I moved to 2020. That didn’t either, only 1 percent higher at 7%.
So my next problem was: what constitutes “winning”? A 10% market share? That happens on the 11th of April 2034. A quarter of all machines installed with Linux? August 20th 2148. The last lonely windows machine is finally being turned off on November 24th 2198.
consider 2198 the “year of the Linux desk top” but I’d rather nominate a year that will occur in my lifetime (barring cryogenic freezing that is). So I’m looking forward to a mid April day in about 24 years, which will finally be the year of Linux.